Knockout Stages
Simulated progression probabilities for every team through the tournament bracket.
#1
Spain
Group H
Rating: 2157ATT: 2.73DEF: 0.3923%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
73%
2nd Place
22%
3rd Place
4%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
99%
Round of 16
77%
Quarter Finals
61%
Semi Finals
43%
Final
32%
#2
Argentina
Group J
Rating: 2114ATT: 2.34DEF: 0.3111%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
64%
2nd Place
22%
3rd Place
10%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
94%
Round of 16
62%
Quarter Finals
43%
Semi Finals
25%
Final
17%
#3
France
Group I
Rating: 2063ATT: 2.37DEF: 0.4411%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
47%
2nd Place
29%
3rd Place
17%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
90%
Round of 16
64%
Quarter Finals
44%
Semi Finals
30%
Final
20%
#4
England
Group L
Rating: 2021ATT: 2.16DEF: 0.337%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
54%
2nd Place
29%
3rd Place
14%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
94%
Round of 16
66%
Quarter Finals
40%
Semi Finals
26%
Final
14%
#5
Mexico
Group A
Rating: 1875ATT: 1.74DEF: 0.466%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
68%
2nd Place
25%
3rd Place
7%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
99%
Round of 16
70%
Quarter Finals
47%
Semi Finals
26%
Final
13%
#6
Colombia
Group K
Rating: 1982ATT: 2.07DEF: 0.415%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
49%
2nd Place
30%
3rd Place
15%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
90%
Round of 16
60%
Quarter Finals
34%
Semi Finals
19%
Final
10%
#7
Brazil
Group C
Rating: 1991ATT: 2.61DEF: 0.365%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
50%
2nd Place
28%
3rd Place
16%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
91%
Round of 16
63%
Quarter Finals
34%
Semi Finals
20%
Final
10%
#8
Ecuador
Group E
Rating: 1938ATT: 1.49DEF: 0.483%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
41%
2nd Place
32%
3rd Place
19%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
88%
Round of 16
54%
Quarter Finals
32%
Semi Finals
17%
Final
8%
#9
Turkey
Group D
Rating: 1911ATT: 1.71DEF: 0.703%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
40%
2nd Place
27%
3rd Place
19%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
82%
Round of 16
55%
Quarter Finals
31%
Semi Finals
16%
Final
8%
#10
Germany
Group E
Rating: 1932ATT: 2.53DEF: 0.553%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
39%
2nd Place
32%
3rd Place
20%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
86%
Round of 16
52%
Quarter Finals
30%
Semi Finals
15%
Final
6%
#11
Switzerland
Group B
Rating: 1891ATT: 1.89DEF: 0.573%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
53%
2nd Place
32%
3rd Place
13%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
96%
Round of 16
64%
Quarter Finals
29%
Semi Finals
13%
Final
6%
#12
Portugal
Group K
Rating: 1986ATT: 2.24DEF: 0.443%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
35%
2nd Place
35%
3rd Place
20%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
85%
Round of 16
50%
Quarter Finals
26%
Semi Finals
13%
Final
6%
#13
Belgium
Group G
Rating: 1894ATT: 2.30DEF: 0.513%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
55%
2nd Place
26%
3rd Place
14%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
92%
Round of 16
57%
Quarter Finals
31%
Semi Finals
14%
Final
7%
#14
Norway
Group I
Rating: 1914ATT: 1.74DEF: 0.623%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
26%
2nd Place
31%
3rd Place
28%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
77%
Round of 16
45%
Quarter Finals
25%
Semi Finals
13%
Final
6%
#15
Japan
Group F
Rating: 1906ATT: 2.24DEF: 0.442%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
44%
2nd Place
32%
3rd Place
17%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
88%
Round of 16
47%
Quarter Finals
25%
Semi Finals
14%
Final
6%
#16
Senegal
Group I
Rating: 1860ATT: 1.69DEF: 0.462%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
23%
2nd Place
29%
3rd Place
31%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
74%
Round of 16
42%
Quarter Finals
22%
Semi Finals
12%
Final
5%
#17
Netherlands
Group F
Rating: 1948ATT: 2.34DEF: 0.502%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
39%
2nd Place
33%
3rd Place
19%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
87%
Round of 16
44%
Quarter Finals
23%
Semi Finals
12%
Final
5%
#18
Croatia
Group L
Rating: 1912ATT: 1.89DEF: 0.541%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
27%
2nd Place
36%
3rd Place
27%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
83%
Round of 16
43%
Quarter Finals
20%
Semi Finals
10%
Final
4%
#19
Uruguay
Group H
Rating: 1892ATT: 1.79DEF: 0.441%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
23%
2nd Place
54%
3rd Place
17%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
89%
Round of 16
41%
Quarter Finals
20%
Semi Finals
6%
Final
3%
#20
Canada
Group B
Rating: 1788ATT: 1.52DEF: 0.551%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
36%
2nd Place
40%
3rd Place
20%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
92%
Round of 16
51%
Quarter Finals
19%
Semi Finals
7%
Final
2%
#21
Morocco
Group C
Rating: 1827ATT: 1.68DEF: 0.371%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
22%
2nd Place
30%
3rd Place
30%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
74%
Round of 16
37%
Quarter Finals
14%
Semi Finals
6%
Final
2%
#22
Paraguay
Group D
Rating: 1834ATT: 1.29DEF: 0.591%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
21%
2nd Place
25%
3rd Place
27%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
66%
Round of 16
34%
Quarter Finals
14%
Semi Finals
5%
Final
2%
#23
Scotland
Group C
Rating: 1782ATT: 1.37DEF: 0.68<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
23%
2nd Place
30%
3rd Place
29%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
74%
Round of 16
36%
Quarter Finals
13%
Semi Finals
5%
Final
2%
#24
South Korea
Group A
Rating: 1758ATT: 1.78DEF: 0.51<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
29%
2nd Place
55%
3rd Place
14%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
95%
Round of 16
43%
Quarter Finals
17%
Semi Finals
5%
Final
1%
#25
Austria
Group J
Rating: 1830ATT: 1.62DEF: 0.63<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
15%
2nd Place
30%
3rd Place
30%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
65%
Round of 16
23%
Quarter Finals
10%
Semi Finals
3%
Final
1%
#26
United States
Group D
Rating: 1726ATT: 1.88DEF: 0.59<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
21%
2nd Place
25%
3rd Place
27%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
65%
Round of 16
31%
Quarter Finals
12%
Semi Finals
4%
Final
1%
#27
Panama
Group L
Rating: 1730ATT: 1.45DEF: 0.71<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
16%
2nd Place
28%
3rd Place
37%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
71%
Round of 16
26%
Quarter Finals
9%
Semi Finals
3%
Final
1%
#28
Ivory Coast
Group E
Rating: 1695ATT: 1.55DEF: 0.54<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
15%
2nd Place
24%
3rd Place
35%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
62%
Round of 16
24%
Quarter Finals
9%
Semi Finals
3%
Final
1%
#29
Australia
Group D
Rating: 1777ATT: 1.74DEF: 0.47<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
17%
2nd Place
23%
3rd Place
28%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
59%
Round of 16
28%
Quarter Finals
10%
Semi Finals
3%
Final
1%
#30
Algeria
Group J
Rating: 1760ATT: 1.84DEF: 0.58<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
14%
2nd Place
28%
3rd Place
31%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
62%
Round of 16
20%
Quarter Finals
8%
Semi Finals
2%
Final
1%
#31
Iran
Group G
Rating: 1772ATT: 1.76DEF: 0.45<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
22%
2nd Place
31%
3rd Place
29%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
74%
Round of 16
28%
Quarter Finals
9%
Semi Finals
2%
Final
1%
#32
Egypt
Group G
Rating: 1696ATT: 1.39DEF: 0.48<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
18%
2nd Place
29%
3rd Place
31%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
69%
Round of 16
24%
Quarter Finals
7%
Semi Finals
2%
Final
<1%
#33
Uzbekistan
Group K
Rating: 1714ATT: 1.39DEF: 0.57<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
9%
2nd Place
18%
3rd Place
34%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
47%
Round of 16
15%
Quarter Finals
4%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#34
Czechia
Group A
Rating: 1740ATT: 1.55DEF: 0.70<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
3%
2nd Place
14%
3rd Place
57%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
53%
Round of 16
16%
Quarter Finals
5%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#35
Jordan
Group J
Rating: 1680ATT: 1.43DEF: 0.69<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
7%
2nd Place
19%
3rd Place
29%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
45%
Round of 16
11%
Quarter Finals
3%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#36
DR Congo
Group K
Rating: 1652ATT: 1.14DEF: 0.62<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
7%
2nd Place
17%
3rd Place
32%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
43%
Round of 16
13%
Quarter Finals
3%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#37
Iraq
Group I
Rating: 1618ATT: 1.14DEF: 0.59<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
5%
2nd Place
11%
3rd Place
24%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
30%
Round of 16
9%
Quarter Finals
2%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#38
Sweden
Group F
Rating: 1712ATT: 1.68DEF: 0.67<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
10%
2nd Place
19%
3rd Place
34%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
50%
Round of 16
12%
Quarter Finals
3%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#39
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Group B
Rating: 1595ATT: 1.15DEF: 0.84<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
10%
2nd Place
24%
3rd Place
49%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
65%
Round of 16
19%
Quarter Finals
4%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#40
Tunisia
Group F
Rating: 1628ATT: 1.31DEF: 0.54<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
7%
2nd Place
16%
3rd Place
31%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
42%
Round of 16
8%
Quarter Finals
2%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#41
Haiti
Group C
Rating: 1548ATT: 1.40DEF: 0.82<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
5%
2nd Place
12%
3rd Place
25%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
31%
Round of 16
7%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#42
Curacao
Group E
Rating: 1563ATT: 1.08DEF: 0.96<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
5%
2nd Place
12%
3rd Place
26%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
32%
Round of 16
7%
Quarter Finals
2%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#43
Cabo Verde
Group H
Rating: 1563ATT: 1.05DEF: 0.76<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
2%
2nd Place
12%
3rd Place
40%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
32%
Round of 16
5%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#44
Saudi Arabia
Group H
Rating: 1576ATT: 1.16DEF: 0.67<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
2%
2nd Place
11%
3rd Place
39%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
30%
Round of 16
5%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#45
Ghana
Group L
Rating: 1510ATT: 1.24DEF: 0.680%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
2%
2nd Place
8%
3rd Place
22%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
22%
Round of 16
3%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#46
New Zealand
Group G
Rating: 1562ATT: 1.43DEF: 0.670%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
5%
2nd Place
13%
3rd Place
26%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
34%
Round of 16
5%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#47
Qatar
Group B
Rating: 1421ATT: 1.35DEF: 0.880%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
1%
2nd Place
4%
3rd Place
18%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
13%
Round of 16
1%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#48
South Africa
Group A
Rating: 1517ATT: 1.17DEF: 0.670%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
<1%
2nd Place
6%
3rd Place
22%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
18%
Round of 16
2%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
| # | Flag | Team | Grp | Elo | Form | Att | Def | 4th | 3th | 2nd | 1st | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | H | 2157 | 0 | 2.73 | 0.39 | 1% | 4% | 22% | 73% | 99% | 77% | 61% | 43% | 32% | 23% | |
| 2 | Argentina | J | 2114 | -32 | 2.34 | 0.31 | 4% | 10% | 22% | 64% | 94% | 62% | 43% | 25% | 17% | 11% | |
| 3 | France | I | 2063 | +8 | 2.37 | 0.44 | 7% | 17% | 29% | 47% | 90% | 64% | 44% | 30% | 20% | 11% | |
| 4 | England | L | 2021 | +10 | 2.16 | 0.33 | 4% | 14% | 29% | 54% | 94% | 66% | 40% | 26% | 14% | 7% | |
| 5 | Mexico | A | 1875 | +73 | 1.74 | 0.46 | 0% | 7% | 25% | 68% | 99% | 70% | 47% | 26% | 13% | 6% | |
| 6 | Colombia | K | 1982 | +46 | 2.07 | 0.41 | 6% | 15% | 30% | 49% | 90% | 60% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 5% | |
| 7 | Brazil | C | 1991 | -3 | 2.61 | 0.36 | 6% | 16% | 28% | 50% | 91% | 63% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 5% | |
| 8 | Ecuador | E | 1938 | +29 | 1.49 | 0.48 | 8% | 19% | 32% | 41% | 88% | 54% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | |
| 9 | Turkey | D | 1911 | +64 | 1.71 | 0.70 | 13% | 19% | 27% | 40% | 82% | 55% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 3% | |
| 10 | Germany | E | 1932 | +19 | 2.53 | 0.55 | 9% | 20% | 32% | 39% | 86% | 52% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 3% | |
| 11 | Switzerland | B | 1891 | +64 | 1.89 | 0.57 | 2% | 13% | 32% | 53% | 96% | 64% | 29% | 13% | 6% | 3% | |
| 12 | Portugal | K | 1986 | -44 | 2.24 | 0.44 | 10% | 20% | 35% | 35% | 85% | 50% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | |
| 13 | Belgium | G | 1894 | +47 | 2.30 | 0.51 | 5% | 14% | 26% | 55% | 92% | 57% | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | |
| 14 | Norway | I | 1914 | +48 | 1.74 | 0.62 | 15% | 28% | 31% | 26% | 77% | 45% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | |
| 15 | Japan | F | 1906 | +52 | 2.24 | 0.44 | 8% | 17% | 32% | 44% | 88% | 47% | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | |
| 16 | Senegal | I | 1860 | +102 | 1.69 | 0.46 | 17% | 31% | 29% | 23% | 74% | 42% | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | |
| 17 | Netherlands | F | 1948 | -26 | 2.34 | 0.50 | 9% | 19% | 33% | 39% | 87% | 44% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | |
| 18 | Croatia | L | 1912 | -15 | 1.89 | 0.54 | 10% | 27% | 36% | 27% | 83% | 43% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | |
| 19 | Uruguay | H | 1892 | +3 | 1.79 | 0.44 | 6% | 17% | 54% | 23% | 89% | 41% | 20% | 6% | 3% | 1% | |
| 20 | Canada | B | 1788 | -8 | 1.52 | 0.55 | 4% | 20% | 40% | 36% | 92% | 51% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | |
| 21 | Morocco | C | 1827 | +15 | 1.68 | 0.37 | 18% | 30% | 30% | 22% | 74% | 37% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | |
| 22 | Paraguay | D | 1834 | +2 | 1.29 | 0.59 | 27% | 27% | 25% | 21% | 66% | 34% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | |
| 23 | Scotland | C | 1782 | +65 | 1.37 | 0.68 | 18% | 29% | 30% | 23% | 74% | 36% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | |
| 24 | South Korea | A | 1758 | -9 | 1.78 | 0.51 | 2% | 14% | 55% | 29% | 95% | 43% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | |
| 25 | Austria | J | 1830 | -15 | 1.62 | 0.63 | 25% | 30% | 30% | 15% | 65% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | |
| 26 | United States | D | 1726 | +14 | 1.88 | 0.59 | 28% | 27% | 25% | 21% | 65% | 31% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | |
| 27 | Panama | L | 1730 | +5 | 1.45 | 0.71 | 18% | 37% | 28% | 16% | 71% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | |
| 28 | Ivory Coast | E | 1695 | +119 | 1.55 | 0.54 | 25% | 35% | 24% | 15% | 62% | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | |
| 29 | Australia | D | 1777 | +19 | 1.74 | 0.47 | 32% | 28% | 23% | 17% | 59% | 28% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | |
| 30 | Algeria | J | 1760 | +50 | 1.84 | 0.58 | 27% | 31% | 28% | 14% | 62% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | |
| 31 | Iran | G | 1772 | -26 | 1.76 | 0.45 | 18% | 29% | 31% | 22% | 74% | 28% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | |
| 32 | Egypt | G | 1696 | +30 | 1.39 | 0.48 | 21% | 31% | 29% | 18% | 69% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | Uzbekistan | K | 1714 | +20 | 1.39 | 0.57 | 40% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 47% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | Czechia | A | 1740 | -9 | 1.55 | 0.70 | 27% | 57% | 14% | 3% | 53% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | Jordan | J | 1680 | +24 | 1.43 | 0.69 | 44% | 29% | 19% | 7% | 45% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | DR Congo | K | 1652 | +69 | 1.14 | 0.62 | 44% | 32% | 17% | 7% | 43% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | Iraq | I | 1618 | +100 | 1.14 | 0.59 | 61% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 30% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | Sweden | F | 1712 | -42 | 1.68 | 0.67 | 37% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 50% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1595 | +69 | 1.15 | 0.84 | 17% | 49% | 24% | 10% | 65% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | Tunisia | F | 1628 | +15 | 1.31 | 0.54 | 46% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | Haiti | C | 1548 | -9 | 1.40 | 0.82 | 59% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | Curacao | E | 1563 | 0 | 1.08 | 0.96 | 57% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 32% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | Cabo Verde | H | 1563 | 0 | 1.05 | 0.76 | 45% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | Saudi Arabia | H | 1576 | -32 | 1.16 | 0.67 | 48% | 39% | 11% | 2% | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | Ghana | L | 1510 | +33 | 1.24 | 0.68 | 68% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | New Zealand | G | 1562 | -48 | 1.43 | 0.67 | 56% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 34% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | Qatar | B | 1421 | -109 | 1.35 | 0.88 | 77% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | South Africa | A | 1517 | -52 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 71% | 22% | 6% | 0% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |