World Cup 2026
See how the tournament could unfold.
Explore match predictions, group standings, knockout probabilities, and the most likely final based on Elo ratings and thousands of simulations.
Final forecast
Spain
vs France
Most likely final matchup in the current forecast at 6%.
Scheduled matches
104
Groups mapped
12
Teams profiled
48
Most likely champion
Spain
Explore the tournament
Everything you need, from groups to the final.
Browse the schedule, compare groups, follow the knockout bracket, and check which final is most likely to happen.
Matches
104 fixtures with projected win, draw, and loss probabilities.
Open scheduleGroups
Compare group strength, qualification chances, and the toughest paths across 12 pools.
Open standingsStages
Follow every knockout round and see which teams are most likely to advance.
Open bracketFinal
Focus on the championship game and the final matchups that appear most often.
Open finalistsTournament favorites
The race for the trophy is tight at the top.
These teams currently have the best chance of winning the World Cup.
Spain
Group H · Elo 2157
Argentina
Group J · Elo 2114
France
Group I · Elo 2063
How it works
Built on ratings, simulations, and matchup probabilities.
Elo base
Team ratings reflect opponent quality and longer-term historical performance.
Recent form
Short-term momentum is captured via 1-year rating changes to reward hot streaks.
Home advantage
Teams playing in their host nation or home continent receive a psychological performance boost.
Hybrid simulations
The tournament is simulated 128,000 times using an optimized 80/20 blend of Elo probabilities and historical Attack/Defense ratings.
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